The Power of Conspiracy

Conspiracy theories. Hardly a day goes by without the term appearing in the news, and a quick search reveals countless books and websites uncovering alleged conspiracies. And it’s true that conspiracy theories are experiencing a renaissance in terms of their dissemination and impact.

This is being fuelled by two factors: the advent of the internet and the rise of populist movements. In Europe and the US, conspiracy theories are much less influential than in the past, but their impact on politics is once again proving to be highly problematic.

US political scientist Michael Barkun identifies three characteristics of conspiracy theories: they assume that nothing happens by chance, nothing is as it seems, and everything is connected. So conspiracy theorists believe in the existence of a secret group – the conspirators. They are systematically plotting to take control of an institution, a country or even the whole world, or they have done so in the past and now want to consolidate and expand their power. Therefore, conspiracy theories convey an almost romantic image of today’s world and humankind. They assume that small groups of people can put their intentions into practice over the space of years, decades or even centuries – such as the conspiracy theories about the Illuminati. Since this contradicts the assumptions of modern social sciences that emphasise chaos, contingency, and structural factors, Barkun describes conspiracy theories as ‘stigmatised knowledge’.

Conspiracy theories became increasingly stigmatised and migrated from the centre of society to the fringe. In the terminology of the sociology of knowledge, they moved from being orthodox knowledge to heterodox knowledge and the term “conspiracy theorist” became an insult.

They may have a considerable following, but they are not taken seriously by the scientific discourse and the public at large because they are based on false assumptions. The people who formulate them must expect to be excluded from the scientific community and may even be socially ostracised.

However, this diagnosis only applies to the last few decades and to the Western world. From the 18th century until well into the 20th century, conspiracy theories were both mainstream and elite phenomena in Europe and North America. The scientific debate of the time made it inevitable, as demonstrated by numerous studies.

The mechanistic world view of the 18th century promoted belief in conspiracies and the belief that the moral quality of an action always corresponded to the intention that motivated it. Accordingly, intellectuals and politicians believed that large-scale conspiracies determined the course of history.

However, it should be stressed that conspiracy theories retained a degree of popularity in the West, it’s just that they disappeared from the public eye, where they were no longer accepted, and migrated to subcultures. Conspiracy theorists had a correspondingly difficult time reaching a wider audience. They often had to self-publish, and as a result, their alternative explanations had little impact. Anyone who doubted that John F. Kennedy was actually killed by a lone gunman or that the Americans really landed on the moon had to invest a lot of time and effort into finding alternative explanations for these events. This meant doubts often failed to solidify into conspiracy theories.

But all this changed with the advent of the internet. It is now very easy for conspiracy theorists to present their ideas to their fellow man (or, more rarely, fellow woman). You only have to Google: ‘What’s happening in Ukraine?’ or ‘Who’s responsible for the refugee crisis?’ to find links to conspiracy sites on the first or second results page, depending on the particular search algorithm. As a result, the internet increases the visibility and availability of conspiracy theories, and it means that conspiracy theorists are now more connected, making it easier to solidify their beliefs. As a result, more people once again believe in conspiracy theories.

When studies show that more than half of Americans believe in at least one conspiracy theory, or that popular theories in Germany resonate with a quarter to a third of the population, it is clear that they are affecting more people than thirty years ago, though still much less than a hundred or two hundred years ago. It seems we are indeed experiencing a renaissance of conspiracism, but we are not (yet) living in an age of conspiracy theories.

But the fact that the situation has drastically changed over the last twenty years is partly due to how the internet has significantly accelerated and intensified the fragmentation of Western societies. Former subcultures on the fringes of society have become virtual and real subpublics and counterpublics with their own media systems generating their own truths.

As a result, they make insinuations that are understood by the initiated but not by the general public. However, the AfD has had a lasting impact on the public discourse as a whole, not only but chiefly with regard to migration and refugees. The CDU’s sister party the CSU has now fully adopted the AfD’s line. When we bear in mind that these are essentially fuelled by conspiracy theories, it becomes clear that such theories also have a political impact on Germany, though not – yet – to such a direct extent as in other countries.